No Growth, Slow Growth or Great Leap Forward

Declining Trend
The Treasury has recently indicated that the country’s economic growth this year will be around 6.5%. As the recorded growth rate of the first half of this year was 7.1%, this means that growth in 2H 2012 is being estimated at 6%. The growth momentum will inevitably slow down steadily during the course of this year, as the restrictive measures, particularly the 18% credit ceiling set for banks (23% where they have been able to borrow the incremental funds from abroad), take effect. The re-phasing of public expenditure, announced recently, will further dampen economic activity.