Publications

Find below research publications published and disseminated by the Pathfinder Foundation

Lest we forget remembering the ‘Pathfinder Beyond the Box: A New Economic Vision for Post

 

The Pathfinder Foundation produced a Report “Pathfinder Beyond the Box; a New Economic Vision for post-Covid Sri Lanka,” which was presented to senior policy makers and made available to the public in May 2020. Today, it is time to reinforce the urgency of addressing the issues raised in that report and consider the efficacy of the recommendations contained therein.

The Nightmare Scenario: A Default on Sovereign Debt

On December 17, 2021, Fitch downgraded Sri Lanka’s rating to “CC”, the lowest rating prior to default. With external reserves at around $1.6 billion and almost $1 billion in debt-service payments coming due in January 2022 (and $7 billion during the coming year), the country faces a very real possibility of a sovereign debt default. If this were to happen, what would be the consequences for the economy, the poor, and society?

Sri Lanka has no choice but to Restructure External Debt: A Pathfinder Perspective

Has the time come to consider seriously the merits of restructuring the government’s external debt obligations? The Sri Lankan authorities have indicated that they are in the process of negotiating inflows to meet the country’s immediate foreign exchange requirements. However, there is considerable uncertainty as to whether there would be sufficient inflows to meet the acute dollar illiquidity over the medium-term.

Pulling back from the precipice: A Pathfinder perspective

Sri Lanka is facing what is arguably its most challenging external financing crisis. Gross Official Reserves have declined to USD 1.6 bn as at end-November. Repayments over the subsequent 12 months amount to about USD 7 billion. The authorities have responded with import and capital controls as well as a fixed exchange rate based on moral suasion by the CBSL and rationing of foreign exchange by the commercial banks. This has resulted in a scarring of the economy which will inevitably have an adverse impact on growth, employment and incomes. Inflation is rising and is on the verge of reaching double digits and shortages constantly emerge of essential goods and services.

China's economic confidence stays strong

With growth resilient and progress made in the pursuit of high-quality development, economic confidence remains positive in China.In the second quarter, business confidence among Chinese entrepreneurs continued to improve, according to a central bank survey. The entrepreneur confidence index climbed for the ninth straight quarter, rising to 75.8 from 74.2 in the first quarter.The business climate index for Q2 held steady at 58.5 percent, 3.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year, the central bank said.Optimism has spread among officials and economists."China has the conditions and capability to fulfill the annual target set at the beginning of the year and ensure the stable and long-term growth of the economy," said a National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) official.

Norway's Arctic town envisions gateway on Polar Silk Road with link to China

KIRKENES, Norway, March 9 (Xinhua) -- Envisioning a new port on the Barents Sea coast and a railway that goes all the way southward to the Baltic Sea, Norway's Arctic town of Kirkenes sets its sight on a major European hub on a Polar Silk Road with link to China. Finland and Norway announced on Friday plans to explore building an Arctic railway between Finland's northern city of Rovaniemi and Norway's ice-free port of Kirkenes. This agreement came after Norway plans to develop new harbor and terminal areas near Kirkenes, a town in the Sor-Varanger municipality in Norway's northeastern county of Finnmark.

Chinese, American scientists "light up" lung cancer mutations

WASHINGTON, March 7 (Xinhua) -- Chinese and American scientists have found a new way to identify non-small cell lung cancers (NSCLC), the most common type of lung cancer, non-invasively. In a study reported on Wednesday in the journal Science Translational Medicine, the scientists used a radio-labeled chemical tracer to mark certain cancer mutations, which can help determine sensitivity to and the efficacy of a therapy called tyrosine kinase inhibition in NSCLC patients. NSCLC with those mutations can be best treated with drugs called tyrosine kinase inhibitors. The inhibitors can extend median survival time of cancer patients with a mutation in the epidermal growth factor receptor or EGFR protein to greater than two years, more than twice the survival of patients receiving only chemotherapy.

China beomes focus at IMF/WB annual meetings

WASHINGTON, Oct. 15 (Xinhua) -- From economic growth, financial risks, currency internationalization to the Belt and Road Initiative, China was frequently mentioned by financial officials at the just-concluded annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. As the world's second-largest economy, China's economic growth, the development of its financial markets, and its agenda of opening up and reform will have a major impact on the global economy and financial markets.
STRONG GROWTH WITH REFORMS

Chinese automaker BYD unveils North America's largest electric bus factory

LANCASTER, the United States, Oct. 6 (Xinhua) -- Chinese carmaker BYD unveiled Friday its expanded battery-electric bus manufacturing facility, North America's largest, in the U.S. city of Lancaster in southern California. BYD, which stands for "Build Your Dreams," is also the world's largest manufacturer of rechargeable batteries. The company's electric bus, supported by its solar panels, LED lighting and energy-efficient technologies, is able to run over 248 kilometers after a single charge, which is among the longest in the world. This expansion is an addition of a new wing to the current BYD Coach and Bus space, bringing the total manufacturing facility to nearly

Emerging Power of the Yuan and De-dollarization of the Global Economy

The US government shutdown and the debt ceiling crisis have increased global concerns regarding the impact of the dysfunctional US political system on the international financial system, in particular, and the global economy more generally.

AIIB to invest in IFC fund

BEIJING, Sept. 28 (Xinhua) -- The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has announced it will invest 150 million U.S. dollars in the International Finance Corporation (IFC)'s Emerging Asia Fund to address the infrastructure gap in Asia.

The Chinese Maritime Silk Route: An Opportunity to be Seized

Recreating History
China has launched a new initiative to build a “Maritime Silk Route” linking the Pacific and Indian oceans. It was first proposed by President Xi Jinping during a visit to Indonesia in October 2013. Furthermore, Premier Li Keqiang has announced the establishment of a Yuan 3 billion ($500 million) maritime cooperation fund to promote this initiative.

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