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Should Sustaining Rapid Growth Remain Elusive?

ECONOMIC ALERT

Should Sustaining Rapid Growth Remain Elusive?

No, Sri Lanka Can Make It

The promise of accelerated growth

 

The end of the conflict has raised expectations regarding the growth prospects of the country. However, a lesson to be drawn from the experience of 2010 and 2011 is that a sustained accelerated growth trajectory cannot be achieved by demand management policies alone ie adjustments to monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 31 July 2013 10:40

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Lessons from the Japanese Stagnation: How China will Tackle the Economic Slowdown?

Pathfinder Economic Alert

Lessons from the Japanese Stagnation: How China will Tackle the Economic Slowdown?

The Shared Experience

Both Japan’s post-World War II recovery and China’s resurgence over the last three decades were export-driven. Manufacturing, based on low-cost labour, was the key determinant of the initial transformation process in both instances. Both countries also used under-valued currencies to provide exporters with the competitive advantage.

Last Updated on Monday, 15 July 2013 14:04

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Reviving Agriculture: The Case for a Fundamental Re-think (2)

Pathfinder Economic Alert

Reviving Agriculture: The Case for a Fundamental Re-think

Sri Lanka’s Low Productivity/Growth Syndrome

The 35 years since liberalization of the economy has seen repeated cycles of the economy overheating once growth exceeds 6%. Growth of 8% or more is necessary over a sustained period to achieve economic transformation similar to that achieved by a number of countries in East and South East Asia. The causality for Sri Lanka’s inability to sustain accelerated growth (as seen again after 3Q 2012) is complex.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 10 July 2013 10:45

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Reviving Agriculture: The Case for a Fundamental Re-think

Pathfinder Economic Alert

Reviving Agriculture: The Case for a Fundamental Re-think

Sri Lanka’s Low Productivity/Growth Syndrome

The 35 years since liberalization of the economy has seen repeated cycles of the economy overheating once growth exceeds 6%. Growth of 8% or more is necessary over a sustained period to achieve economic transformation similar to that achieved by a number of countries in East and South East Asia. The causality for Sri Lanka’s inability to sustain accelerated growth (as seen again after 3Q 2012) is complex.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 10 July 2013 10:45

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How Close is the US to Tapering QE3?

Pathfinder Economic Alert

How Close is the US to Tapering QE3?

Implications for Emerging Markets

Currently, there is much debate regarding the future of the massive Quantitative Easing (QE) program of key Central Banks, particularly the US Federal Reserves (FED); the European Central Bank (ECB); the Bank of England (BOE); and the Bank of Japan (BOJ).

Last Updated on Wednesday, 26 June 2013 10:29

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Export Expansion: The Key to Sustain Accelerated Growth.

Pathfinder Economic Alert

Export Expansion: The Key to Sustain Accelerated Growth.

No Short Cuts only Hard Choices.

The Negative Narrative

Sri Lanka’s exports have declined from 33% of GDP in 2000 to 16% in 2012. In addition, Sri Lanka’s share of global exports have also declined (this reflects clearly a decline in competitiveness).

 

Last Updated on Friday, 31 May 2013 11:44

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All the World is a Pond: We Cannot Afford to Opt Out.

 

Pathfinder Economic Alert

All the World is a Pond: We Cannot Afford to Opt Out.

Emerging Political and Diplomatic Tensions

The ongoing sessions of the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) have raised a number of issues regarding the conduct of Sri Lanka’s international relations.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 27 March 2013 15:34

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Lead, Follow or be Left Behind.

 

Pathfinder Economic Alert

Lead, Follow or be Left Behind.

Responding to a Changing World.

The global landscape is changing more quickly than at any time in human history. Geopolitics, technology, lifestyles and even the climate are all posing new opportunities and challenges. In geopolitics we are seeing the crystallizing of a new multi-polar world. Within that, the economic centre of gravity is shifting from West to East with the re-emergence of Asia as a dominant player. This is, of course, nothing new. China and India accounted for well over half of global GDP on their own, before the Industrial Revolution.

Last Updated on Friday, 22 February 2013 14:23

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Sri Lankans were, are and will be Turtles in the Ocean not Frogs in the well

 

From ancient history to present day

Since ancient times, Sri Lankans have engaged in international trade. Our rulers were open to international traders and visitors, such as Fa-Hsien. In addition, Ptolomy, a Greek, depicted Sri Lanka in a world map many centuries ago which indicates that Sri Lanka was on the trade routes of that time. Gems, spices, elephants, ceramics and pottery items were among the products that were exchanged.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 06 February 2013 16:21

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Macroeconomic Road Map for 2013

 

Macroeconomic Road Map for 2013

 

The Pathfinder Foundation which has been promoting research and advocacy for economic reforms to increase the welfare of people of Sri Lanka wishes to extend its best wishes to all readers for 2013. We sincerely hope that during the new year the political leadership and the policy makers will undertake implementation of more prudent economic reforms and development projects.

 

The readers are kindly invited to visit our website www.pathfinderfounndation.org which has previous Economic Alert and Economic Flash articles as well as other interesting news on the Foundation activities.

 

 


Last Updated on Wednesday, 02 January 2013 16:46

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Public Service Expansion: Pay without Work or Productive Employment for Youth

Public sector employment in Sri Lanka has been increasing since the 1960’s, despite a decline in the size of government. Total public expenditure as a percentage of GDP has declined substantially from 1976 to 2011. There has seen a decline in the services provided by the government e.g. the removal of the food subsidy. Over the years, a few attempts have been made to arrest the growth of the public sector, including reductions in new recruitment and voluntary retirement schemes. Such policies were also promoted and supported by the multilateral donor agencies, such as the IMF and WB. 

Last Updated on Monday, 24 December 2012 14:03

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Economic Alerts Introduction

 

As of October 2010, the PF has been issuing monthly Economic Alerts which have sought to highlight emerging economic challenges & opportunities. These Economic Alerts have gained wide publicity in print and electronic media.

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